The Starbucks Indicator

By Dan Acree

It has been my habit for many years to ask “How’s business?” when patronizing any retail establishment. It’s not like I’m looking for trade secrets, it’s that I have found it both informative and comforting to query the help on how they think things are going. I have come to view this anecdotal evidence as largely on target with the general state of the economy.

In Texoma, the prime monitor of the economy is what I refer to as “The Starbuck Indicator.” This is my theory.

Starbucks is a luxury item. It is also a self-medicating energy booster. When the economy is good Starbucks is selling a lot of venti double espresso, skim milk macchiatos. Put pressure on the economy and the orders merely drop in size/price to a grande. But go through a year like 2008 and 2009 and we’re no just talking about reducing the order to a $2 “coffee of the day,” but there will be absolutely no scones in the sack.

Six months ago a Starbucks barista told me sales were down. “Even the 2 and 3 cup-a-day drinkers are coming in just once a day now,” he said. More recently, last week in fact, that same barista said things were picking up.

If we have money for a $4 cup of coffee and a $3 scone, things must be getting better, according to The Starbucks Indicator.